Analyze This

ST. LOUIS, MO. – Doug Lovelace, a 40-year-old financial advisor from Richmond, VA is the winner of Circuit Event #7 at Harrah’s St. Louis.

Lovelace describes his style of play as a bit unorthodox as he willing to risk substantial amounts of chips with marginal hands in order to see more than his share of flops. He says that, mixed with making the right-sized bets with the best hand led him to success in the $400 (+50) buy-in No Limit Hold’em tournament.

Event #7 attracted a field of 230 players and generated a total prize pool of $89,240.

The WSOP Circuit Events at Harrah’s St. Louis have been a success so far through seven events. Event #1 attracted a field of 675 players and was the largest poker tournament ever played in the state of Missouri.

Field sizes remained strong with the weekday $350 buy-in events drawing an average of 292 players.     

Players have lauded the tournament structures, quality of the dealers and the overall poker playing experience.

Day One of Event #7 ended around 1:15 am with the final nine remaining players returning the following day to play it down to a winner.   

Along with Lovelace, another financial analyst at the Final Table, Perry Ernest of Naperville, IL, was in position to move up a notch in the race for a record fifth Circuit Event Ring as he looked to pick up his third WSOPC win.

Ninth Place
The final table started off with a bang. With blinds and antes at 6,000/12,000/1,000, Eric Koffman made it 75,000 to go from early position with     before Jamie McAlister moved all-in. Tom Grasso already with most of his remaining chips in with the BB, made the call with    .

McAlister, who had both of his opponents covered, was in the lead with pocket queens.

The board came king-high with no 9’s or 10’s, eliminating Grasso and Koffman in one fell swoop.

Grasso, a 34-year-old mortgage consultant from St. Louis, took home $1,945 for ninth while 35-year-old property manager Koffman collected $2,293 in his third WSOPC final table appearance.

Seventh Place
After doubling McAlister, Mike White was all-in with A3 suited vs. Jeffrey Copleand’s AQ off-suit. White was nearly on life support after an       flop, but a   on the turn reversed his fortune and after a river 8, it was Copeland who ended up flatlining. Copeland is a 35-year-old chemical operator from St. Louis. He took home $2,829 for seventh.

Sixth Place
McAlister, a 27-year-old sales manager from Piedmont, MO was the sixth place finisher. McAilster is a former pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers where he was drafted right out of high school. Let’s analyze this:

The St. Louis Cardinals and Brewers are currently tied for the first in the NL central and kick off game one of a three game series tonight in Milwaukee. The Cardinals are 9-0 in the last nine games vs. The Brewers. The Cards look pretty good at
-115.

Now back to poker. McAlister was eliminated all-in with     vs. White’s     after an ace-high board. McAlister pocketed $4,239.

Fifth Place
In just his second year of playing at the World Series of Poker Circuit Events, Ernest has made five final tables, resulting in two gold rings.

Analyzing this, he is on par to join Men “The Master” Nguyen and Mark “Pegasus” Smith as 4-time Circuit Event winners by 2012. (Granted Nguyen or Smith don’t move up the leader board in rings)

Unfortunately for Ernest, that projection was pushed back to 3rd or 4th quarter 2012 after his pocket fours failed to hold on an all-in vs. Fogleman. Ernest collected $5,649 for fifth.

Fourth Place
Fogleman was all-in with     and was called by Lovelace, who tabled    . A       flop gave Fogleman top pair, but left Lovelace with overpair possibilities along with the gutshot straight draw.

Fogleman stated that he was once struck by lightning. Let’s analyze this.

The chances of being struck by lightning in one’s lifetime: 1 in 6,250 (according to the National Weather Service). The chances of Fogleman taking the pot: about 3 to 1.

Taking his history into account, the odds of Fogleman doubling up looked pretty good.

However, (in this hand at least) Fogleman was more unlucky than lucky when a   hit the turn to complete Lovelace’s gutshot, eliminating him in fourth. The 25-year old from Springfield, IL took home $7,059.

Third Place
Blinds and antes moved up to the 15,000/30,000/4,000 level. White and Lovelace doubled through one another four times before this hand, White was all-in from the small blind with his remaining 330,000 chips. White had pocket jacks.

No other than Lovelace made the call, tabling    . The flop came       before a third 4, a spade hit the turn. A river   sent the 46-year-old real estate agent from Kansas City, KS packing. He earned $9,888 for his third place showing.

Second Place        
Heads up play began at around 4:18 pm with blinds and antes at 20,000/40,000/5,000 and lasted only one hand. Lovelace about a 6 to 1 chip lead over Cardenas, who moved all-in with his remaining chips with    . Lovelace made the call with    . The flop came      , putting Lovelace in the lead which he maintained through an   turn and   river.

Cardenas is from Dripping Springs, TX. He says in his bio sheet that he is a 40-year-old ninja, but analyzing this, the chances of that are about less than .7 percent. Second place paid $13,939.

Lovelace collected $22,796 for his victory along with his first WSOP Circuit Event gold ring.

“I feel great,” said Lovelace of his win. “I play a little bit different than other players, but it worked well for me today.”

WSOP.com asked the financial analyst his thoughts of members in the poker community comparing poker to the stock market.

“I don’t think it is harmful conjecture, but it’s not that accurate. Yes there is skill, risk and luck involved in both, but poker is gambling.”
    
Still to come are 5 more events and nightly (single-day) non-ring $230 and $340 buy-in events which begin at 4 pm and 7pm. The WSOP Circuit at Harrah’s St. Louis runs through April 15th.